Contact:
Mark Vitner
(704) 383-5635
Media Contact:
Elizabeth Hodges
(704) 383-5188
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November 20, 2000
RETAILERS EXPECTED TO RING UP RESPECTABLE GAINS THIS HOLIDAY SEASON
CHARLOTTE, N.C.-- Retailers are expected to ring up solid sales gains this year, but sales will not come close to matching the spectacular gains seen during the past two years. First Union's annual holiday sales forecast calls for sales to rise 7% nationwide, compared to gains of 9.1% in 1999 and 8.9% in 1998. "Seven percent growth is still exceptionally strong," noted First Union economist Mark Vitner.
First Union's sales forecast is based on recent trends in retail sales and also incorporates the consumer confidence figures as well as the latest surveys of holiday spending expectations.
Holiday sales include sales of department stores, discount stores, home improvement centers, hardware stores, furniture and appliance stores, clothing shops, drug stores, mail order firms and the Internet.
Vitner acknowledges that there are plenty of valid concerns about the upcoming holiday season. The continued debate surrounding the presidential election is a major distraction for consumers, and energy prices are cutting into household purchasing power. The weakness in the stock market is another potential trouble spot.
Retailers are also concerned that this holiday season does not seem to have any of the red-hot sales items that past seasons have. The best prospect, the Sony PlayStation II, has long since been sold out. But there are still plenty of other popular items, including scooters, Harry Potter merchandise and video games. "Clothing sales make up a large proportion of holiday sales," said Vitner, "and they could really get a lift if the weather turns cooler before the holidays.
Vitner tends to downplay worries about holiday spending. "I am a little surprised with some of the more negative predictions that have been made this year. After all, the unemployment rate is at a thirty year low, inflation remains low, and consumer confidence remains near an all-time high." Moreover, discounting by retailers is likely to be very intense this year, as many chains are going into the holiday season with bulging inventories. "When all is said and done, consumers are still in a relatively upbeat mood," added Vitner.
The calendar is also working in retailer's favor this year. Thanksgiving comes relatively early this year and Christmas falls on a Monday. "That gives shoppers one extra weekend to shop, and you can bet retailers will have plenty of promotions going that weekend to pull in those last-minute shoppers," said Vitner. Hanukkah also comes a little later this year, beginning December 21st, or a full two weeks later than last year.
Regionally, First Union expects sales to rise the most in the South and West Coast, where job growth and population growth have been the strongest. Sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest will slightly trail the nation.
Among major metropolitan areas, Vitner is expecting some of the strongest gains to be along the East Coast. Atlanta is a real standout, with sales expected to climb 9% this year. Several Florida markets, including Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville, are expected to post gains of 8% or better, and sales are expected to rise 7.5% in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.
The Carolinas are also expected to post strong gains, particularly Charlotte and Raleigh, where job and income growth have remained exceptionally strong. Charlotte area merchants can expect gains of 8%, and Raleigh should see gains in the 9% range.
Other hotspots along the East Coast include the greater Washington, D.C. area where sales are expected to climb 8%. Growth will be somewhat more subdued in Baltimore, which should see 6% gains. By contrast, merchants in the greater Philadelphia area should see holiday sales rise 7.5%, and merchants in New Jersey should see 7% gains.
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Sales Forecast
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Nov./Dec. Average
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Year-to-Year Change
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U.S.
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+7.0%
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Southeast
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+8.0%
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Northeast
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+6.5%
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Midwest
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+7.0%
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West
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+8.0%
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Georgia
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+7.5%
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Atlanta
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+9.0%
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Savannah
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+7.5%
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Columbus
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+7.0%
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Augusta
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+7.0%
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Florida
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+7.8%
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Tampa
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+8.0%
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Orlando
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+9.0%
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Jacksonville
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+8.0%
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Miami
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+7.0%
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Fort Lauderdale
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+7.5%
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West Palm Beach
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+7.5%
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South Carolina
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+8.0%
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Charleston
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+9.0%
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Columbia
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+8.0%
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Greenville-Spartanburg
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+8.0%
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North Carolina
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+8.0%
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Charlotte
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+8.0%
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Raleigh-Durham
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+9.0%
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Greensboro-Winston-Salem
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+7.0%
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Wilmington
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+7.5%
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Virginia
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+7.5%
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Richmond
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+7.0%
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Norfolk
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+7.5%
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Northern Virginia
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+9.0%
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Washington D.C.
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+8.0%
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Maryland
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+6.5%
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Baltimore
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+6.0%
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Pennsylvania
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+7.0%
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Philadelphia
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+7.5%
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Harrisburg
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+7.0%
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New Jersey
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+7.0%
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Northern New Jersey
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+7.5%
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Connecticut
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+6.5%
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Hartford
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+6.0%
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Stamford
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+6.5%
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First Union (NYSE:FTU), with $247 billion in assets and stockholders' equity of $15 billion at September 30, 2000, is a leading provider of financial services to 15 million retail and corporate customers throughout the East Coast and the nation. The company operates full-service banking offices in 11 East Coast states and Washington, D.C., and full-service brokerage offices in 46 states and international offices worldwide. Online banking products and services can be accessed through www.firstunion.com.
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